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379
« on: February 04, 2010, 07:52:19 am »
The dollar fell against the yen to a session low Thursday after data showed initial U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week. The dollar [JPY=X 90.58 -0.39 (-0.43%) ] dropped as low as 90.48 yen after the data from around 90.65 yen prior to the release of the data. The U.S. Labor department reported that initial state jobless benefit claims rose to 480,000 in the latest week. Markets were expecting claims of 460,000. The euro hit a seven-month low against the dollar, knocked by concerns over the fiscal health of some euro zone countries and ahead of a news conference by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Any comments on the high indebtedness of countries such as Greece and Portugal are likely to be the focus for markets when Trichet speaks at 1:30 pm London time after the ECB, as expected, left interest rates at 1 percent. Worries over Spain and Portugal have increased as investors speculate the two countries may face similar problems over budget deficits and debt as Greece. These concerns helped lift the safe-haven dollar to a six-month high versus a currency basket. "The euro remains vulnerable and the market has now turned its attention to Spain and Portugal. Rallies have been short-lived and I am targeting a move towards $1.3745 in the short term," said BNP currency strategist Ian Stannard. Sterling trimmed losses against the dollar, however, after the Bank of England announced a pause in asset purchases under quantitative easing, as expected. It left the door open to more purchases should the outlook warrant it. The euro [EUR=X 1.3824 -0.0064 (-0.46%) ] was trading against the dollar, close to an earlier low of $1.3827, its weakest since June 2009. Weakness was partly attributed to widening in Greek, Portuguese and Spanish bond yield spreads over German benchmarks. "Euro/dollar continues to trade off euro zone CDS/bond spreads and looks vulnerable," said ING currency strategist Chris Turner in a note. Traders said moves in the euro could become volatile should Trichet make any strong reference to fiscal problems in the euro zone. Sterling [GBP=X 1.5837 -0.0045 (-0.28%) ] was down against the dollar on the day but above an earlier three-and-a-half month low of $1.5806 reached in the run-up to the BoE decision. Strong US Data Traders sold the single European currency on the view that dismal public finances in euro zone countries may hinder any economic improvements in the region, increasing the probability that the U.S. economy will recover more quickly. Strong U.S. data this week supported this view ahead of key non-farm payrolls numbers due on Friday. The dollar hit a six-month high of 79.715 versus a basket of currencies, trading well above its 200-day moving average. Technical traders said the next resistance was at 80.07, which would be a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its fall from 89.624 to 74.17 in 2009. The New Zealand dollar [NZD=X 0.6948 -0.0067 (-0.96%) ] hit a five-month low of $0.6937 after data showed the country's jobless rate hit a 10-year high while weak Australian retail sales data pushed the Aussie to a six-week low $0.8772. Risk-averse traders flocked to the yen as European shares fell 0.8 percent. The euro fell against the yen [EURJPY=X 125.23 -1.11 (-0.88%) ]. http://www.cnbc.com/id/35226910
380
« on: February 04, 2010, 06:28:52 am »
We await today a possible bearish intraday direction that insures the breach of pivotal support 90.800, thereby making the pair's achieving the primary targets easier around 89.100. Keep in mind the importance of trading remaining below 91.300 to insure that these expectations continue.
http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/USDJPY.gif
381
« on: February 04, 2010, 06:27:26 am »
The pair sterling against the U.S. dollar has fallen to 1.58438, we expect a further drop today, but the pair must be get rid a saturation that appear on the Stochastic indicator before continuing the trip down to the level 1.56800. http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/GBPUSD.gif
382
« on: February 04, 2010, 06:26:16 am »
The pair euro against the U.S. dollar dropped to the level 1.38260 after it reach the resistance level at 1.40250 , , indicators are show saturation in sales, which may lead the pair to make some of the volatility before continuing the process of decline toward the goal 1.37250. http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/EURUSD.gif
386
« on: February 03, 2010, 05:19:48 am »
Market Expectations
EUR/USD :The pair Euro against U.S. dollar managed to complete the corrective movement to the 38.2% Fibonacci at the level 1.39870, we expect today for the pair to return to land again to the level 1.38000 , we can see through stochastic indicator a signs of saturation in the procurement process for the pair .
source: FXCBS
392
« on: February 01, 2010, 11:45:07 am »
We expect the pair to succeed in breaching this level 89.250 and therefore opening the way to achieve a possible bearish short term direction for this week. We could witness some minor bullish correction before activating the expected bearish direction that mainly targets 86.90 and then 84.80. It is vital that 92.90 remain intact to maintain chances of achieving the predicted bearish direction.
393
« on: February 01, 2010, 11:43:45 am »
The pair Sterling against the U.S. Dollar was succeeded to breach the support level 1.6025 during the trade last week and achieved the lowest price at 1.5932; we expect a further drop for the pair during the trading this week aimed at the level 1.57000.
394
« on: February 01, 2010, 11:36:59 am »
The pair Euro against U.S dollar breakthrough the support point at 1.40500 at the trading last week to achieve the lowest at 1.38520 , we expect a new low this week aimed at 1.35250 , but we expect corrective movement for the pair before that happens , these expectations require stability of trading below 1.40500.
395
« on: February 01, 2010, 11:29:16 am »
NFP Report:
Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly U.S. Non Farm Report (NFP) is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.
The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month's numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.
What's more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the U.S. economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar.
Risks Associated with Trading Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Currency During Economic News Announcements
As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop.
Approximately four years ago we saw a gap of approximately 200 pips on the GBPUSD on a Non-Farm Payroll announcement. While this is an extreme example, it nevertheless is a possibility with trading during economic announcements. Consequently, plan on the spreads widening and, if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, which could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.
Due to the volatility of price fluctuations during the news, it is possible to see a delay in execution due to the additional verification necessary for each trade.
396
« on: February 01, 2010, 11:27:10 am »
United States: Employment Situation (Non Farm Payroll Report-NFP) Friday, February 5, 2010 at 8:30 AM ET. Please see http://www.ibfx.com/Tools/Economic-Calendar.aspx for more information. NFP Report:Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly U.S. Non Farm Report (NFP) is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market. The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month's numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading. What's more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the U.S. economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar. Risks Associated with Trading Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Currency During Economic News AnnouncementsAs with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop. Approximately four years ago we saw a gap of approximately 200 pips on the GBPUSD on a Non-Farm Payroll announcement. While this is an extreme example, it nevertheless is a possibility with trading during economic announcements. Consequently, plan on the spreads widening and, if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, which could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order. Due to the volatility of price fluctuations during the news, it is possible to see a delay in execution due to the additional verification necessary for each trade.
398
« on: February 01, 2010, 06:22:52 am »
Market Expectations
EUR/USD :The pair Euro against U.S dollar breakthrough the support point at 1.40500 at the trading last week to achieve the lowest at 1.38520 , we expect a new low this week aimed at 1.35250 , but we expect corrective movement for the pair before that happens , these expectations require stability of trading below 1.40500.
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