EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY's rebound from 119.64 extended further to as high as 125.19 last week. As the cross is now very close to mentioned 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26), we'd stay neutral initially this week. On the downside below 123.01 minor support will indicate that corrective rise from 119.64 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 125.22/26 cluster resistance will indicate that stronger rebound is underway for 61.8% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 128.73 next.

In the bigger picture, with 125.22 cluster resistance still intact, we're holding on the bearish view.That is, medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or later to a new low below 112.10. However, note that decisive break of 125.22 cluster resistance will argue that recent fall might have completed already. Further break of 126.88 support turned resistance will argue that medium term rise from 112.10 might be still in progress for another high above 139.21 before completion.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.

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http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurjpy-outlook/eur%10jpy-weekly-outlook-20100313108762/