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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

EUR/USD closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day short covering bounce off last Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the...


Commodity and Interest Rate Pair Review

Aussie: The four hour trend is short. The pair bounced off oversold on the daily chart, and in doing so held the 23% Fibonacci line of the move up from 0.6200 to 0.9400, at 0.8650. This is a main price point for a pair that is backed by the strongest...


Forex Market: News/ Trend/ Technical Analysis / USD/CHF Aims at 1.09
« on: February 10, 2010, 11:18:57 am »
USD/CHF Aims at 1.09

The video post yesterday mentioned the completion of the bearish Gartley for the USD/CHF pair. If the 4H trendline was broken, further retracement was expected. However, it held, so continuation looks to be the more likely case instead. The daily chart shows that if this swing is 127-138.2% extension of...


Momentum indicators show negative signs that make us maintain the previously expected bearish direction, where we await the breach of 89.570 and the 87.700. It is vital that trading remain below 90.300 so these expectations may prevail.


The pair Sterling against U.S. dollar collided yesterday with the level 38.2% Fibonacci at the price 1.57450 , we expect today some volatility for the price before determining its trend, that is because of the important economic data which we are waiting today from the United Kingdom economic .


The Euro against U.S. dollar succeeded yesterday to complete its correction movement to 38.2% Fibonacci near the level 1.38500, we expect today volatility for the price to get rid of the negative sign that shows through stochastic indicator before return to rise again to achieve the corrective level of 61.8% Fibonacci .


Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY

Dollar/Yen is moving still within the well formed downward channel on the daily chart, while this week on the 15 minute chart the currency pay has formed a new small upward channel, reaching new resistance level at 90.01 this morning. Persuasive break above that level may lead to direction change...


The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD

Gains have been seen and this encourages with the tentative thought that we may have seen a major low. However, we seem to be quite close to the completion of this first rally. The 0.8751-70 area should continue to support and generate follow-through above the 0.8796 high and to the...


AUD/USD Climbs with Risk Trade

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with intraday and 2/4 highs. As for the downside, the AUD/USD has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 2/5 lows. Furthermore, the psychological .85 area could serve as a technical cushion should...


We wait for today a bearish intraday direction; targeting 88.450 then 87.750. A break of 89.090 will help the bearish trend gain speed to the level 88.450.


the pair Sterling against U.S. dollar is making a corrective movement and we are waiting for breakthrough the resistance level at 1.56660 to open the road in front of the pair to complete its corrective to the level of 1.57700, this expectation require constant of trading above the level of 1.55500.


The pair Euro against U.S. dollar making a corrective movement which may achieve the level of 1.38500, we expect an upward trend today for the pair to that level, this expectation require constant of trading above the level 1.36400.


Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY

Dollar/Yen is moving still within the well formed downward channel on the 1 hour chart. This week, the currency couple is trading hesitantly, testing the upper limit of the bearish channel at around 89.73. Persuasive break above that level may lead to direction change and strengthen the Dollar further towards...


Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD

Euro/Dollar traded hesitantly on Monday within the 1.3624 - 1.3719 range, because of economic events absence, closing the day at 1.3647. The currency couple is still on the slippery bearish track for now, as seen on the 1 hour chart because of the economic crises in Greece, Portugal and other...


AUD/USD Stabilizes as FX Markets Cool

The AUD/USD is stabilizing above its psychological .85 level and our uptrend lines as the risk trade stabilizes across the marketplace. A weekend of rest coupled TrichetÂ’s reassurances the ECB and EU have GreeceÂ’s debt issue under control has allowed the Dollar to ease off of last weekÂ’s highs following...


Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY

Dollar/Yen at first traded hesitantly on Friday, than bears took over the race and the currency couple declined down to 88.83, closing the week at 89.19. Today the USD/JPY is moving quietly because of economic data absence. In the appearance of next catalyst events our expectations are for the Yen...


Technical Analysis for Crosses

The pair has succeeded in breaching the psychological levels of 140.00, opening the door up for potential downside actions during this week. The uptrend line of the medium term basis has been breached. Thus; the fifth wave of the suggested Elliott count might be in progress. SMA 50-colored in red...


AUDUSD: Pressure In Force Towards The 0.8567 Level

Pressure on the downside has switched to its Oct 02Â’09 low at 0.8567 after AUDUSD decisively broke and held below its key support located at its Dec 24Â’09 low at 0.8733 the past week. With that swing low taken out , its medium term uptrend has topped out as its...


Learn Forex / How a Forex Trade Works?
« on: February 07, 2010, 04:08:25 am »
In the FX market you can buy or sell one currency for another. When you buy a currency, you are said to be "long" in that currency and when you sell a currency, you are said to be "short" in that currency. As the value of one currency rises or falls relative to another, traders decide to buy or sell currencies in order to make profits - since the objective is to earn a profit from their position. Placing a trade in the foreign exchange market is simple and the mechanics of a trade are virtually identical to those found in other markets. Because of the symmetry of currency transactions, you are always simultaneously long in one currency and short in another. An open position is one that is live and ongoing. As long as the position is open, its value will fluctuate in accordance with the exchange rate in the market. To close out your position, you conduct an equal and opposite trade in the same currency pair. For example, if you have gone long in one lot of EUR/USD you can close out that position by subsequently going short in one EUR/USD lot (at the prevailing bid price).

Example of How FX Trade Works

Trader's Action Euros US Dollars
A trader sells 10,000 Euros in December 2009 when the EUR/USD rate was 1.5083.-10,000+15,083
In January of 2010 the trader buy 10,000 Euro back at the market rate of 1.4200.+10,000-14,200
In this example, the trader earned a gross profit of $883.0+883

Risk aversion took over and the USD and JPY benefited. This week's action is significant as it reflects breakouts and adjustments to previous outlooks. Let's take a step back an take a look a the big picture for the currency markets.

EUR/USD: Alternate Wave Counts - Big Picture

Weekly and Monthly: The EUR/USD is declining past the swing projection, strengthening the bearish outlook further. The decline past 1.37 invalidates previous week's wave count..

Count 1: One count refers to the 2008-2009 decline as ABC correction, and the 2009 rally as wave I, while the late 2009-early 2010 decline as wave II. The current leg of decline could be wave “c”.

Price action at the moment suggests the decline eyes the 1.30 area (78.6% retracement). The first target is the 1.34/35 area, which the market looks poised to meet in the coming week.

Count 2: If it doesn't the market may be developing a bullish gartley at the 61.8% retracement area - 1.13. This retracement pattern, may be the the complete ABC correction after a terminate wave V.

The stochastic in the weekly suggests further bearish continuation, while the monthly momentum reflects the sharp reversal of the past couple of months.

In any case the 1.30 area is the next major area of support, and the market looks poised to reach this level.


GBP/USD: Retracement Projection; Wave Counts

Weekly: The break below 1.57 spells further weakness. The market meets a large swing projection to the 1.55 area, though it may continue to 1.53 - 50% retracement support.

Wave counts I-II-III seems established, but we are either in correction after a truncated wave V OR we are in the middle of wave IV.

If the market stays above 1.48/1.50 (end of wave I), the second scenario is valid.

Otherwise, we have already finished a bullish cycle, and a bearish cycle may have already started.


USD/JPY: 3-Wave Retracement

Daily: The USD/JPY dropped more than 200 pips yesterday and now tests the 78.6% retracement level - near 88.80. This was the original projection, though the market appeared to have began reversal near the 61.8% retracement area - 89.80.

Once again, price action is very bearish so be cautious. If the market bottoms here, the stochastic would show a bullish divergence, suggesting this 3rd wave in the recent retracement decline is an exhaustion move.

This 3-wave move is not an impulse wave, so the bullish outlook is still valid. In the near-term however, the market remains bearish, so strong confirmation will be needed to establish a reversal to the bullish outlook.


USD/CAD: 1.11/1.10 Projection

Weekly and Daily: The 1.1 area is still a viable target for the recent rally, although the market paused around the 1.0750 area this week.

The daily chart shows a possible exhaustion move, which may lead to a short-term decline.

Looking at the weekly, we see that if a rally follows this retracement, and breaks 1.0/1.1, we have a double bottom.

In the short-term anticipate a minor correction decline and a subsequent push towards 1.0/1.1. If the breaks, the bullish outlook goes into the intermediate time-frame, eyeing 1.14.


EUR/GBP Stalking Consolidation

Daily and 4H: The EUR/GBP didn't see much development in terms of developing a bullish or bearish outlook this week. was maintained in a narrow range testing channel resistance (4H).

The market is basically in consolidation after the downswing from mid-Jan to Feb.

Last week's projection is still valid. This is a pullback projection to the 0.8950 area.

In the 4H time-frame, you can see an alternate scenario where the market comes down to the 0.8650 and than heads to 0.8800 area.

In any case, the anticipation is for a rally in the short-intermediate term toward 0.88/0.8850. Then if topping action occurs, the bearish outlook is further confirmed.

Weekly: The weekly shows that the market is testing the 78.6% retracement area, so there is bullish expectations here. However, if the market continues declining, the 100% retracement - 0.84 area is the next support, or a projection from a decline after pullback.


GBP/JPY: Adjusting Outlook

Daily: A break below 144.50 continues bearish case towards 139.50. A break above 147.35 suggests a swing projection (in Daily) to the 152.50/153 area. This was last week's anticipation.

The market broke below 144.50 with force and is declining past the 139.50 support. The break signifies intermediate bearish outlook.

Weekly: We see the intermediate projection in the weekly chart, showing a decline to the 78.6% retracement near the 128.00 area. This is also a swing projection.

Like with many breakouts this week, there may be a pullback, but don't expect a major one.



GBPUSD: Out Of Sideways Range With Prospect For 1.5276

The pair has finally pushed through its Oct 13Â’09 low/range lows at 1.5706, breaking out of its broader sideways range and putting GBP on the path to further downside weakness towards the 1.5276 level, its .50 Fib Ret(1.3501-1.7041 rally). GBP has been trapped in large range between the 1.7041 and...


EUR/USD Alternate Wave Counts - Big Picture

The EUR/USD is declining past the swing projection, strengthening the bearish outlook further. The decline past 1.37 invalidates previous weekÂ’s wave count. Count 1: One count refers to the 2008-2009 decline as ABC correction, and the 2009 rally as wave I, while the late 2009-early 2010 decline as wave II....


The dollar against yen succeeded in achieving the bearish scenario mentioned yesterday, we expect a bearish intraday direction, where its primary targets are around 87.350 and require mainly 90.550 to remain intact in the four hour closing below it.


Stochastic shows positive signs for the pair Sterling against the U.S. dollar, which could push for a corrective movement to the level of 1.5800 before continuing the journey down towards to target new goals at 1.55600 , which needs a stable trading below 1.58500.


The pair euro against U.S. dollar succeeded to achieve our goals which were set yesterday in our report, stochastic appears saturated in sales process, which could lead to spouse corrective movement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at the point 1.38100, but we must be alerted for the economic data which will be issued today from US.


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