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Messages - pranjali

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AUD/USD Sinks Back To .89 Amid Broad Dollar Strength

The AUD/USD is heading lower amid high volatility as the Dollar strengthens across the board after a better than expected U.S. economic data set. U.S. Advance GDP, Chicago PMI, and UoM Consumer Sentiment data all impressed and a Dollar buying spree has ensued as investors choose the U.S. economy as...


EURUSD - Erodes Key Support Levels

The pair finally closed lower below a band of support levels at the 1.4000 level and 1.4028/44 levels after an early intraday strength saw it touching a high of 1.4059 Thursday. With this development, further threats are now seen towards its July 08Â’09 low at 1.3831 with a break targeting...


The Daily Forecaster: AUDJPY

I remain with a target around 78.83 but don't think we'll get there directly. More likely we have seen the low today and while the move could be choppy I feel the day should see a recovery back to between 80.72-92. I look for this to cap. Thus, only a...


Chart Of The Day: EUR/USD

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has finally made a tentative breakdown below the 1.4000 support/resistance and psychological barrier, establishing a new 6-month low for the pair. This occurs after a slight bullish retracement that occurred several days ago which formed a small flag-like consolidation...


Forex Market: News/ Trend/ Technical Analysis / Eur/Usd Weekly Outlook
« on: January 28, 2010, 11:00:34 am »
Eur/Usd Weekly Outlook

Eur/Usd prices fell heavily in the middle of 2008 from the 1.6036 highs, down to the 1.3805 area. The price structure of that move was completed with three waves followed by a sharp gain in wave A/1. The price structure looks complex as the market may react with another leg...


EURUSD: Bulls May be Resurfacing

We are seeing the bulls trying to resurface as the pairÂ’s break to a new low at 1.3933 level was seen being rejected in early trading today. There is a 4 hourly rejection candle and a potential hammer in the making on the daily chart suggesting a halt of its...


A gauge of business sentiment in the services sector. The figure is derived from a survey asking firms in the service sector about current and expected demand. Since the service sector accounts for roughly two thirds of total Euro-zone GDP, Services Confidence provides an important confirmation of the health for the overall economy. High levels of Services Confidence suggest future upward trends for production and employment.
The figure is determined by the difference between positive and negative answers. Therefore a headline above zero indicates positive service sector confidence, while a negative number shows negative confidence

Source of Report: http://www.fxwords.com/c/confidence-and-sentiment-indicators-euro-zone.html

A measure of industry sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. Based on a survey among industrial executives, Industrial Confidence asks for production expectations. Specifically the European Commission asks about recent orders and buildup of inventories. Higher levels of industrial confidence indicate a positive outlook for future business spending and capital investment. Despite the fact that manufacturing accounts for only about a quarter of Euro-zone business, industry accounts for most of the volatility in GDP. Thus developments here have significant impact on overall growth in Europe.

The figure is determined by the difference between positive and negative answers. A headline above zero indicates positive industrial confidence, while a negative number shows negative confidence.

Source of Report: http://www.fxwords.com/c/confidence-and-sentiment-indicators-euro-zone.html

Measures consumer sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. The figure is the result of Euro-zone consumer surveys personal finance, the job market, the likelihood of saving and expectations on the economy. High levels of consumer confidence bode well for the economy, indicating consumers are more likely to increase consumption spurring growth and potentially sparking inflation. Conversely, low consumer confidence levels suggest decreased spending.

The figure is determined by the difference between positive and negative answers. Therefore a headline above zero indicates positive consumer confidence, while a negative number shows more negative answers.

Source of Report: http://www.fxwords.com/c/confidence-and-sentiment-indicators-euro-zone.html

Gauges current business conditions in the Euro-zone. Based on industrial sector surveys the BCI strives to provide a timely and clear picture of business sentiment in the Euro-zone. A high or rising Business Climate figure generally indicates a healthy economy and business climate; conversely, a low or declining figure signals an unfavorable or worsening economy. As business and consumer confidence increases we typically see similar increases in investments, production, and consumption and economic growth.

Source of Report: http://www.fxwords.com/c/confidence-and-sentiment-indicators-euro-zone.html

Euro-zone Economic Confidence

An overall gauge of sentiment toward the economy in the Euro-zone. The index is a composite of most of the sector specific surveys done by the European Commission. A high or rising level of Economic Confidence indicates healthy levels of purchasing, business spending, and investment - a positive economic outlook conducive to the strengthening of the economy and the Euro.

Reported in the European Commission's Business and Consumer Surveys, economic confidence brings together 5 confidence indicators with different weights: Industrial Confidence (40%), Service Confidence (30%), Consumer Confidence (20%), Construction Confidence (5%), and Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (5%).

Source of Report: http://www.fxwords.com/c/confidence-and-sentiment-indicators-euro-zone.html

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD

Euro/Dollar traded hesitantly and within narrow range on Wednesday, closing the day at 1.4022. The upper level of the downward channel and top level level from Monday at 1.4190 has held the Euro's bullish attachs so far and has preserved the downward channel's integrity intact for now. Only convincing break...


USD/JPY : +90.25+

Dlr's o/n rally abv 89.73 (now sup) after FOMC
to 90.09 confirms recent decline has made a low at
89.14 y'day n consolidation with upside bias is
seen for gain to 90.45, however, reckon res at 90.
56/57 wud cap present upmove n yield retreat later.

Raise long entry for this move n only below 89.
35/40 aborts daily bullishness on dlr.

Range Forecast
+90.10 / 90.35+

R: 90.57/90.79/90.91
S: 89.88/89.73/89.35

GBP/USD in Short-term Range; EUR/USD Continues Decline

4H and 1H: The latest adjustment for GBP/USD was to turn the short-term outlook from bearish to ranging. The EUR/USD had a stronger bearish indication through yesterday's price action. The range is roughly between 1.6100 and 1.6270. The market's very weak second attempt to retest 1.610 should have cautioned against...


AUD/USD Relinquishes Earlier Gains Following Strong CPI

The AUD/USD is right back where we left it yesterday despite a pop during the Asia trading session after CPI came in a basis point above analyst expectations, allaying investor fears over MondayÂ’s weak PPI number. However, the mixed pricing data makes the central bankÂ’s upcoming monetary policy decision a...


Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

EUR/USD Today's support: - 1.4017, 1.3988 and 1.3961(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3944, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3920. Break of the latter would result in 1.3903. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3892. Continuation will give 1.3866.


Chart of the Day: Dollar Index

Prices on the dollar index reached new highs in the past week, after a break through the 78.45 region. Currently, we are looking for the final moves of a red wave I/A leg, which is an impulse wave. Once an impulse wave I/A finds its highs around 79.50 region, traders...


Forex Market: News/ Trend/ Technical Analysis / European Pair Review
« on: January 26, 2010, 11:10:38 am »
European Pair Review

Euro: The 4 hour trend is short, and looking to extend that with a test of 1.4000. Recent attempts to break that level have failed, and have actually instigated relatively strong long bounces. The German IFO business survey numbers showed an increase in overall confidence levels, and that may aide...


Usd/Chf Daily Chart Outlook

Swissy traded sharply higher, after the 0.9915 lows were reached at the end of 2009. From that low, the market created an impulse black wave A)/ I), and corrective wave B)/II) that has found the lows just above 1.0100 zone over the past two weeks. Once that low was hit,...


The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY

Price was stronger than expected and this is forcing us into a similar situation as in EURUSDÂ… Indeed, any break above 1.4192-00 EURUSD should see a reaction higher here also. However, until that occurs take care. If seen then I'd look for gains to extend to 129.49 at least but...


USD/CHF Gartley Projection Eyes 1.07

The market action in the past couple of weekÂ’s may be the start of the second leg to a bearish Gartley. Looking at the weekly, a swing projection from the first leg goes to 1.07. The stochastic in weekly is turning back up after retreating from almost overbought levels. If...


GBP/USD Stalking Correction; Risk Assessment

The near-term dollar weakness to start the week is also seen in the GBP/USD pair, which is rallying with strength, unlike the EUR/USD which is climbing slowly. Therefore, judging purely from price action, the EUR/USD looks more ready to continue its decline. The GBP/USD is bullish in the near-term after...


EUR/USD Stalking Correction Rally; Risk Assessment

The 4H time-frame shows stochastic turning from overbought levels and the parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.2) is about to give a bearish signal. Price action is topping, but there still can be another swing towards 1.4250. Currently however, the momentum is slowing suggesting the market may be ready to continue declining.


Crude Oil and Gold Outlook

Crude Oil: The 4 hour trend is short. Oil continues the selling seen in the previous sessions around $74. It is heading for a test of the daily chart support at 72.50 it would seem. The long speculative interest in crude oil trade banked profit recently and in doing so...


Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY

Dollar/Yen climbed on Friday to the 90.51 top, from where it started retreating down to the 89.84 bottom, closing the week at 89.78. This morning the Dollar rose, influenced by the possible liquidity increase news from BOJ. If we see a persuasive burst of the nearest resistance and Friday's top...


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